下面是小编为大家整理的美国百度商店零售模型更新【精选推荐】,供大家参考。
Dept Stores/Specialty Softlines Model Update
North America Equity Research 23 January 2019
Following recent holiday sales reports and company appearances at the ICR conference we are updating estimates on ANF, AEO, BOOT, FIVE, LULU, OLLI, SIG, TIF and URBN. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF, Underweight). We update our model following ANF’s holiday sales report. We now model 4Q18 EPS of $1.12 equating to FY18 EPS of $0.94, FY19 EPS of $1.01, and FY20 EPS of $1.03. Our $19 PT is based on 4.0x EV/FY20E EBITDA. American Eagle Outfitters (AEO, Neutral). We update our model following AEO’s holiday sales report. We now model 4Q18 EPS of $0.42 equating to FY18 EPS of $1.46, FY19 EPS of $1.73, and FY20 EPS of $2.04. Our $21 PT is based on 4.5x EV/FY20E EBITDA. Boot Barn (BOOT, Overweight). We update our model following BOOT’s positive F3Q pre-announcement. We now model F3Q19 EPS of $0.66 and F4Q EPS of $0.26 equating to FY19 EPS of $1.32, FY20 EPS of $1.49, and FY21 EPS of $1.80. Our new $26 PT is based on 15x CY20E EPS (0.9x PEG).
Five Below (FIVE, Overweight). We update our model following FIVE’s holiday sales report. We now model 4Q18 EPS of $1.58 equating to FY18 EPS of $2.66, FY19 EPS of $3.19, and FY20 EPS of $3.87. Our new $139 PT is based on 1.75x PEG on 2019/20E EPS growth (or 36x FY20E EPS). lululemon athletica (LULU, Overweight). We update our model following LULU’s 4Q updated guidance. We now model 4Q EPS of $1.75 equating to FY18 EPS of $3.76, FY19 EPS of $4.60, and FY20 EPS of $5.58. We raise our PT to $182 ($180 prior) based on 33x FY20E EPS (1.5x PEG). Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI, Overweight). We update our model following OLLI’s holiday sales report and ICR meetings. We now model 4Q18 EPS of $0.70 equating to FY18 EPS of $1.82, FY19 EPS of $2.16, and FY20 EPS of $2.55. Our $87 PT is based on 34x FY20E EPS (or 1.8x PEG on 2019/20E NI). Retailing/Department Stores & Specialty Softlines Matthew R. Boss, CPA AC
(1-212) 622-2630 matthew.boss@jpmorgan.com Bloomberg JPMA BOSS <GO> Steven Zaccone, CFA (1-212) 622-8996 steven.zaccone@jpmorgan.com Aaron T Grey, CFA, CPA (1-212) 622-4967 aaron.t.grey@jpmorgan.com Grace Smalley (1-212) 622-4894 grace.smalley@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
Equity Ratings and Price Targets
Company
Ticker
Mkt Cap ($ mn)
Price ($)
RatCur ing
Prev
Cur
Price T End Date arget Prev
End Date Abercrombie & Fitch ANF US 1,393.36 20.07
UW n/c 19.00
Dec-19 n/c n/c American Eagle Outfitters AEO US 3,664.69 20.33
N
n/c 21.00
Dec-19 n/c n/c Boot Barn BOOT US 624.21 21.87
OW n/c 26.00
Dec-19 23.00
n/c Five Below FIVE US 6,812.20 122.17
OW n/c 139.00
Dec-19 129.00
n/c lululemon athletica inc. LULU US 20,264.84 149.47
OW n/c 182.00
Dec-19 180.00
n/c Ollie"s Bargain Outlet Holdings OLLI US 4,811.04 73.90
OW n/c 87.00
Dec-19 n/c n/c Signet Jewelers SIG US 1,308.32 23.94
N
n/c 27.00
Dec-19 38.00
n/c Tiffany & Co. TIF US 10,958.76 87.60
N
n/c 92.00
Dec-19 94.00
n/c Urban Outfitters URBN US 3,510.70 31.99
N
n/c 36.00
Dec-19 38.00
n/c Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. n/c = no change. All prices as of 22 Jan 19.
See page 22 for analyst certification and important disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. www.jpmorganmarkets.com
Matthew R. Boss, CPA (1-212) 622-2630 matthew.boss@jpmorgan.com North America Equity Research 23 January 2019
Signet (SIG, Neutral). We update our model following SIG’s Holiday print. We now model 4Q19 EPS of $3.87 equating to FY19 EPS of $3.78. For FY20 we model EPS of $3.39. We lower our price target to $27 ($38 prior) based on 4x EV/EBITDA. Tiffany & Co. (TIF, Neutral). We update our model following TIF’s Holiday print. We now model 4Q18 EPS of $1.63 equating to FY18 EPS of $4.70. For FY19 we model EPS of $4.89. We lower our price target to $92 ($94 prior) based on 17x EPS. Urban Outfitters (URBN, Neutral). We update our model following URBN’s holiday sales report. We now model 4Q EPS of $0.79 equating to FY18 EPS of $2.71, FY19 EPS of $2.85, and FY20 EPS of $3.10. We lower our price target to $36 based on 5.0x EV/FY20E EBITDA.
Underweight Abercrombie & Fitch
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF;ANF US)
Company Data Price ($)
20.07
FYE Jan 2017A
2018E (Prev) 2018E (Curr) 2019E (Prev) 2019E (Curr) 2020E (Prev) 2020E (Curr) Date Of Price 22 Jan 19
EPS (Operating) ($)
52-week Range ($) 29.69-15.28
Q1 (Apr) (0.90)
(0.56)A (0.56)A
-
-
-
-
Market Cap ($ mn) 1,393.36
Q2 (Jul) (0.16)
0.06A 0.06A
-
-
-
-
Fiscal Year End Jan
Q3 (Oct) 0.30
0.33A 0.33A
-
-
-
-
Shares O/S (mn) 69
Q4 (Jan) 1.38
1.13 1.12
-
-
-
-
Price Target ($) Price Target End Date 19.00 31-Dec-19
FY Bloomberg EPS FY ($) 0.66 0.39 0.96
-
0.94 0.96 1.00
-
1.01 1.12 1.07
-
1.03 1.26 Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.
Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks Abercrombie & Fitch (Underweight; Price Target: $19.00) Investment Thesis Facing severe secular challenges, ANF is in the midst of a major brand building initiative to regain customers and return to a growth profile. After cutting ~$350M in expenses over the last 3-4 years, we believe ANF’s earnings power going forward is increasingly dependent on the company’s ability to drive positive comps, which appears increasingly too difficult in the worsening retail backdrop. We are not convinced that ANF will see an inflection point in comps on a sustainable basis and see consistent EBITDA declines for the years ahead.
Valuation Our Dec ’19 price target of $19 is based on ~4.0x our 2020E EBITDA (EBIT + D&A at 3.6% of sales, in line with specialty peer group avg.). The ~4x EBITDA is about in line with the company’s 5-year average given top-line stabilization and improved trajectory for 2018.
Risks to Rating and Price Target There is a risk that we have underestimated the upside potential to ANF’s SSS and earnings outlook and, in turn, stock price relative to market expectations, and therefore our price target. Some company-specific factors include the company’s ability to hit fashion trends as well as exogenous factors such as traffic levels and the industry-wide level of promotions that could drive upside to results .
Neutral American Eagle Outfitters
American Eagle Outfitters (AEO;AEO US)
Company Data Price ($)
20.33
FYE Jan 2017A
2018E (Prev) 2018E (Curr) 2019E (Prev) 2019E (Curr) 2020E (Prev) 2020E (Curr) Date Of Price 22 Jan 19
EPS (Operating) ($)
52-week Range ($) 29.88-16.14
Q1 (Apr) 0.16
0.23A 0.23A
-
-
-
-
Market Cap ($ mn) 3,664.69
Q2 (Jul) 0.19
0.34A 0.34A
-
-
-
-
Fiscal Year End Jan
Q3 (Oct) 0.37
0.48A 0.48A
-
-
-
-
Shares O/S (mn) 180
Q4 (Jan) 0.44
0.43 0.42
-
-
-
-
Price Target ($) Price Target End Date 21.00 31-Dec-19
FY Bloomberg EPS FY ($) 1.16 1.16 1.48
-
1.46 1.47 1.73
-
1.73 1.62 1.99
-
2.04 1.74 Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.
Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks American Eagle Outfitters (Neutral; Price Target: $21.00) Investment Thesis AEO is regaining traffic and sales momentum with core customers, driven by the strength of its denim business. We rate AEO shares Neutral as we are concerned that the highly competitive teen retail industry will continue to consolidate and experience pricing pressure as fast fashion competitors continue to lower the initial ticket bar, limiting AEO’s ability to sustain sales productivity levels and margins.
Valuation Our Dec 2019 price target of $21 is based on 4.5x our FY20E EBITDA, which represents a 100bps discount to AEO’s historical five-year average based on concerns of the highly competitive teen retail industry.
Risks to Rating and Price Target There is risk that we have over/underestimated the downside/upside potential to AEO’s earnings outlook and, in turn, stock price relative to market expectations, and therefore our price target. Some company-specific factors include AEO’s ability to hit fashion trends as well as exogenous factors such as traffic levels and competitive environment in the teen space.
Overweight Boot Barn
Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (BOOT;BOOT US)
Company Data Price ($)
21.87
FYE Mar 2018A
2019E (Prev) 2019E (Curr) 2020E (Prev) 2020E (Curr) 2021E (Prev) 2021E (Curr) Date Of Price 22 Jan 19
EPS (Operating) ($)
52-week Range ($) 31.61-15.01
Q1 (Jun) 0.03
0.24A 0.24A
-
-
-
-
Market Cap ($ mn) 624.21
Q2 (Sep) 0.04
0.16A 0.16A
-
-
-
-
Fiscal Year End Mar
Q3 (Dec) 0.73
0.62 0.66
-
-
-
-
Shares O/S (mn) 29
Q4 (Mar) 0.24
0.25 0.26
-
-
-
-
Price Target ($) 26.00
FY 1.05
1.27 1.32
1.43
1.49
1.73
1.80
Price Target End Date 31-Dec-19
CY - - Bloomberg EPS FY ($) 0.70 - 1.29 - 1.47 - 1.78
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.
Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks Boot Barn (Overweight; Price Target: $26.00) Investment Thesis BOOT is the #1 player (over 2.5x as many stores as its closest competitor) in a highly fragmented $20B western/work wear market that is seeing improved trends in 35% of its store base (oil/gas & Texas) after 2 straight years of underperformance due to improving macro conditions. With about 90% of sales at full-price, 30% of assortment work wear, and its western offering differentiated given its niche positioning (and destination nature of its store base), BOOT targets steady merchandise margin improvement over time combined with low fixed-cost hurdles to drive EBIT margin expansion toward 10%+ over time. On sq ft prospects, BOOT’s 500-store target vs. ~225 today allows BOOT to more than double its current store base having not yet tapped into the Mid-Atlantic, parts of the Midwest, and NY market. We see the return to SSS of LSD-MSD and unit growth of 10% equating to mid-teens EBITDA and 20%+ annual EPS growth.
Valuation We raise our Dec ’19 price target to $26 (was $23) base...